An interesting article posted on SWJ regarding the Army's current ability (or lack thereof) to retain quality junior officers. The author, CPT Tim Hsia (I recognize the name, so he is a fairly prolific contributor in the defense academic circles) takes a look at why so many company-grade officers are getting the hell out of the Army.
I know this inevitably leads people to ask me about my own intentions, signaled by the leading question of, "So when's your commitment up?" or "Ever think about using your law degree?"
And my answer is always the same: I don't know yet. For the short term, the Army is a good place to be. I got another deployment in me, so the Army is the answer for the next few years. Beyond that, I just don't know: there are a lot of variables, a lot of things that can or may or may not happen to me between now and x number of years from now.
I do know that CPT Hsia points out some concerns among junior officers that I share, concerns that are both professional and personal in nature.
I also know that there is a fear out there (at least a fear that I feel: not sure how many of my peers feel the same way, or are even cognizant of it) that the Army is going to suffer down the road. We're talking five, ten years down. When shitty lieutenants and captains who have been able to fly under the radar because of OPTEMPO and retention and attrition, become shitty majors and lieutenant colonels.
I don't want to sound alarmist: I am not saying that battalion staff officers and battalion commanders of the near future are going to all suck. Not at all: there will be plenty of good officers that stay in that will undoubtedly bring some balance to the mess. But, there will most certainly be a rough patch that the Army officer corps will have to endure. I imagine it will be akin to the turbulence the Army sailed through in the post-Vietnam era. Probably not to the depths or extremes as the late 1970s and early '80s -- but perhaps in a similar vein, albeit less severe/substantial.
Only time will tell, I suppose. Maybe I'll still be in a uniform to tell y'all about it...
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